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Tariff on Solar, Long SPWR

Well that’s quite contrarian.  Playing the price action > news.    SPWR looks oversold and has found support on my 8-hour candle chart.  Seeking a break above this 8.00 support.

1.26.2018.SPWR1.26.2018.SPWR2

Trumps 30% tariff won’t have significant effect on import revenues for at least an entire year.  And I think more exceptions will be handed out.  The play is that SPWR will be handed at least some exceptions for certain divisions the way FSLR was shown mercy.

There’s cautionary optimism exuded by American solar companies, since a tariff would likely raise prices (drop in supply), and loss of jobs (decrease in supply-chain).

Target entry:  EOD approx., 8.00  // Stop:  7.79

Swing TSLA [310-345]

This is a more conservative trade with an easier read.

Waiting for a Short @345.33

If fill, Target Cover/Buy 310.00

If fill, hold.

1.23.18.TSLA.swing

Elon Musk is betting on himself. No salary, no problem.  Doubt he will hit the full milestone, but even getting halfway there will make him one of the richest men in the world.  Let’s see how the market reacts to this news!

The performance award consists of a 10-year grant of stock options that vests in 12 tranches. Each of the 12 tranches vests only if a pair of milestones are both met.

Market Cap Milestones: To meet the first market cap milestone, Tesla’s current market cap must increase to $100 billion. For each of the remaining 11 milestones, Tesla’s market cap must continue to increase in additional $50 billion increments. Thus, for Elon to fully vest in the award, Tesla’s market cap must increase to $650 billion.

TSLA / ROKU / BABA

11/17 – Tesla in for a short squeeze.  Staying with plan to revolutionize transportation market.  Walmart’s on board, why shouldn’t we?  Currently up 5 points at $318.00

ROKU – buying on every pullback.  Good feel for a buyout?

BABA – still very bullish on Chinese market leading stocks.  BABA will be a common household name beyond investors in 2018.  BABA co-Founder is a great CEO, and knows how to market overseas.  The only reason I can think these foreign financial giants invest in the Brooklyn Nets, has more to do with the city of financial opportunity than the teams talent.

11.17.BABA_5YEAR

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Aloha!

Swell Building Up in Energy / BUY Chesapeake [CHK] for Squeeze

Currently I’m searching for an entry point on a medium term trade in energy [XLE].  The trend is UP, so let’s ride along.

The following are the top energy stocks versus the bottom energy stocks trading on the spider in a 3-month.  Try to view the sector as a continuous flow of water, with the entire sector rising.  You’ll get a nice “bell-curve” if you plot this on a chart.

 

3m-xle-spdr-losers3m-xle-spdr

A closer look though reveals that over a shorter period we see spikes in some of the underperforming stocks, especially CHK

chk-xle

CHK trades within a 5-8 channel after breaking its $4 floor.  Naturally profits were taken in May after a major run, but trying to observe the trader’s psychology, I feel there’s a little sense of anxiety for traders to hold the stock long which is usually a good sign to buy the dips.  Furthermore, the shorting on this stock is quite high which I assume is the cause for the stock to rise from $5 to its peak at $8  from Aug-Sep.  Next squeeze is building up.

chk-squeeze

Looking to get in long between the 5.50 – 5:70 range or cheaper.

 

DRYS – A Lesson On Market Players

drys

DRYS is a nice chart that shows you an extreme example of the “psychology” behind trades.

ACT I – The short.  Sure, DRYS trades at -1000 EPS (didn’t even know that was possible, not really sure what that even means!)

ACT II – The squeeze.  The bear’s tears float this stock up fast.

ACT III –  The dump.  Profit taking drives this stock down 85% in a day.

If you traded this stock and profited, good for you.  It’s a little too much for my taste, but at least I can watch from the side and remind myself that this market is indeed controlled by bigger powers.

-Gio-