VIX Signals Move Higher on Low Volume, then Reversal

  Seems everyone has a comment on the market being ATH.  And bullish sentiment is very high, and with good reason- government policy promoting capital growth, a shift from old industry to more efficient industry and models, borrowing rates declining allowing for creativity in emerging markets. Meanwhile, I take it with caution.  It’s amazing how the “new” market is opened up to so many novice traders, who can buy up stocks in the past few months and score an easy win, and suddenly they are experts.  “It’s going to go higher,” you’ll read in almost any comment section or feed … Continue reading VIX Signals Move Higher on Low Volume, then Reversal

NVDA watch

Been long since I traded options, but every now and then there are some high “R” plays out there.  Bought puts in NVDA ahead of earnings. A rare play on crypto and auto, as I believe the stock is overpriced due to crypto traders.  Good company, but also believe guidance is priced in, so I’ll ignore the analyst upgrades ahead of earnings (310). Weak floor at 242.66 with trickle up from 7/31 to date.  This run-up is easier to take out  (-6%). 6-month chart shows true floor at 213.70 (-20%)  so 225 (-15%) is the natural hedge for longs, so … Continue reading NVDA watch

Vix20LetsGooo …O

Its O, as is Oh @#$%, or Oooops.   Every O tallies a significant breakdown in the broad market.  I’ve been counting them since the January. VIX 20 is just an arbitrary number that sets an alert in my mind to watch carefully the sentiment in the market.  As we know, VIX numbers don’t really mean anything, it’s the “spikes” in the VIX that signal panic or greed. Today market down and VIX is up.   Let’s give it another O. That beautiful inverse correlation… Short-term bottom 16: Continue reading Vix20LetsGooo …O

VIX Signals Sell

Going to sell into today’s rally.  Strange activity on the VIX.  Market up again while VIX flat for the day.  There’s a slight reversal here going into the close, so I would be careful with longs.   VIX INTRADAY — Traders starting to hedge on the rally.   A VIX that spikes to 30s will produce a 2000 point cumulative multi-day drop in the Dow.  Careful out there! VIX 3-Month: 3rd red consecutive bar, low volume.  This rally has a thin floor.  Going to play it safe here.  Going to watch for spikes in VIX this week and next. Continue reading VIX Signals Sell

[TSLA] – Tale of 2 Trades: @310 = Swing Long or Day Short

Two plays in one?  It’s all in the timing… Buy signal on Swing / Long  @ 310 on the 1-year chart.   Stop 283.  This is probably the easier trade, but the R-value (risk/reward) is a little low, a little closer to R=1. Or… Short signal on the DAY/ SHORT @ <310 , Cover @ Friday’s afternoon high, 314.06.   Rationale can be seen in final hour of trading.  All short covering into the weekend. 15:25 – 15:35 –  was a confirmed rally.  This rally extended, but during a sharp reversal of the VIX… 15:40 -15:150  – No strong bars on its 3 … Continue reading [TSLA] – Tale of 2 Trades: @310 = Swing Long or Day Short

SNAP To Report Today – Bear Filter Anyone?

Excited to see this horribly managed company report today (Consensus EPS -.33).  From the company that brought you creepy, ugly, hipster, glasses, there’s good reason it trades below its IPO. I covered my SHORT, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it tanks to the $11-12 zone. But of course, the real problem with SNAP is there’s no real direction in the company overall.  Their business model feels more reactionary, as in reaction to the competition, and the two competitors are not easy to contend with – Instagram and Facebook.  SNAP is more suitable as a buyout company to be honest, … Continue reading SNAP To Report Today – Bear Filter Anyone?