Bullish on Luckin (LK) Aggressive Growth

LK seeks to overtake Starbucks by 2020, and a lot of traders are betting against it. What we need is more negative news, and some bad reviews ghost-written by bears to bring in more shorts. This stock just attracts so much rookies I had to take a long position pre-earnings. Looking to add this on a confirmed rally about 24/25 area.

Time to Go to Work! Slack On the Buy List

I’ve been waiting for slack to hit $17, but with its base forming here right at the low 20s, it has jumped way up on my to-buy list. You can show further patience and buy under 20, but when it comes to timing capitulation, its usually better to just make an entry and average in instead of timing the bottom. If the company is healthy, like Slack, has a great product, like Slack, and is under the radar by giants, as Slack is with Microsoft, then investing in it for the longer term is smart.

My stop-loss plan is to mirror something that of PDD chart. I’m anchoring the trade according to PDD 1-year chart… if this isn’t the bottom, I’ll buy more aggressively in 16-18 levels.

PRICE CHART OF Pinduoduo Inc (PDD)

Cut Losers Today – CRON / VFF. Exit ZM. Added to ETSY YETI shorts

I refuse to hold CRON into their earnings. Small upside (shorts covering) versus big downside to $6. I think it drops, and trickles down, offering a new swing trade entry.

Covered all ZM shorts, shorted 10 points ago around 78. This is one heavily shorted stock, and its due for a rally.

ETSY looks weak all over. And YETI is set up for a bull trap. Added to short position on both. ETSY is for a trend down, YETI looks like its beginning a nice long term trend down. Fancy water bottles belong in Ross, and these extreme coolers- just don’t see the growth here. There’s growth, but nothing to get this excited over. YETI to teens.

CARVANA (CVNA) Putting Bears to the Test

I’ve been going to battle with Carvana for quite a while now. And every time it gets knocked back, somehow it manages to rebound. I’ve been short through the 60s, tried again a few times in the 70s, and my currently play is the retracement from the mid 80s, through post-earnings to the low 60s. Right now, its not looking too good.

I’ve been in and out through stops, whenever the stock refuses to break through my target floors, and each set up I seem to get a good entry, only to be fooled and trapped by the bulls. I get the sense, that the textbook rallies from 10-15% above the 200MA are shaking out a lot of shorts which is really testing my patience on this play. I refuse to add to shorts above 78, and will only add on a break down to the 60s, with all those June-July tops (triple).

With a VIX this low, getting long here does not present a good risk:reward setup, hence the long-term play on the short. Let’s see how this gumball car machine company turns out when growth gets slammed and their stuck with excessive overhead costs. It just seems like a step back from shopping for cars on the internet. But what do I know, I’m just trading the greed.

Pinterest (PINS) Problem with Making Money

Pinterest is a forum of endless creativity, and while it does get the traffic and heavy usage, monetizing is rather tricky. Many investors are pulled in with the illusion that PINS does well. What can you expect from a company that specializes in images. And the image Pinterest sold in claims of high profit potential, was a myth told with empty promises covering a real landscape of challenges, expenses, and the problem of scalability.

Adding the ability to buy products directly from the app seems like a good idea, but I believe in the future it will turn out to be a bad idea. The typical Pinterest user likes the app because of the personal creativity of the contributors, like a craft fair. Adding the ability for direct sales from the app has invited generic products promoted by commercialization, quick market penetration. The creative contributors that give Pinterest’s appeal will be diluted by dollar-sign-eyed, greedy, drop-shipping, made-in-Alibaba vendors. Try it, I dare you! Look up something you’re interested, you’re bound to be flagged for a product that looks innovative and something you think you need in your creatively ambitious life, and it will come with a price tag saying you have two days left to get it at 60% off, and that there are only 10 items left in stock. A classical play on exploiting human emotion. Well, fight that urge and look up that product on Amazon, and you’ll see the EXACT product photo, with a different vendor or branding, and at 20% cheaper price.

So, Pinterest is first an advertising company (and it does this well), and secondly, a waste of online e-commerce which uses the large net casting technique to make a sale to suckers. Instagram, SnapChat, FaceBook, and Pinterest are all following this same model, using user data to bring the mall to you. There’s a serious flaw in this revenue stream design, and investors need to pin this in their minds, and tame their expectations and view these social media companies as what they are- a shiny advertising platform.

Disclaimer: I am short PINS, FB, and soon to be SNAP . Target for PINS is $16.

VIX Major Break Down Setting Up Sharp Drop Soon

Market showing false rally last week with a trickle up. A dip below 18 into 16 would verify that the VIX is “broken”, and is normalizing back to its 20-25 range. Good entry to short here, with VIX heading into complacency levels. Market is just waiting for any news item to trigger the event, so careful with longs here.

Fade the Gap: 1/2/2019

The play: short morning gaps as long as VIX continues to decline. Need to understand that a weakening VIX in a bear market create intraday bull traps. A proper squeeze in bear markets start with opening gaps and rise up throughout the day.

The setup: find imbalanced bid/ask stocks that overpriced the stock within the first 30 mins. Short stocks that rise a little then return to the morning open. Stop set to 1% above the pivot point of decline.

Stocks to short:

SaaS profit takers $MDB and weakness $SVMK.

Weakness: $ARLO $FIZZ $CRON

Momentum cool off: $SHOP

Tipping Point: $EA $FIZZ $FATE

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WAVE RIDERS:

Stay short $TVIX

Buy dips on gold/oil. $DRIP $NUGT

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SPEC PLAYS (1/2 Position with wide stops)

$UMRX (watch $LABU)

$YINN $MOMO