VIX Signals Sell

Going to sell into today’s rally.  Strange activity on the VIX.  Market up again while VIX flat for the day.  There’s a slight reversal here going into the close, so I would be careful with longs.


VIX INTRADAY — Traders starting to hedge on the rally.



A VIX that spikes to 30s will produce a 2000 point cumulative multi-day drop in the Dow.  Careful out there!

VIX 3-Month:


3rd red consecutive bar, low volume.  This rally has a thin floor.  Going to play it safe here.  Going to watch for spikes in VIX this week and next.

[TSLA] – Tale of 2 Trades: @310 = Swing Long or Day Short

Two plays in one?  It’s all in the timing…


Buy signal on Swing / Long  @ 310 on the 1-year chart.   Stop 283.  This is probably the easier trade, but the R-value (risk/reward) is a little low, a little closer to R=1.



Short signal on the DAY/ SHORT @ <310 , Cover @ Friday’s afternoon high, 314.06.   Rationale can be seen in final hour of trading.  All short covering into the weekend.

15:25 – 15:35 –  was a confirmed rally.  This rally extended, but during a sharp reversal of the VIX…

15:40 -15:150  – No strong bars on its 3 point rally, all panic covering.

After all the weak shorts have been shaken out, a VIX explosion to the upside will bring this back down to retest 300 (its just a whole number, but whatever, that’s what everyone looks at).  But looking at the yearly chart, its next support is around 275.  Nice size R on this one if you’re successful on the day trade and decide to ride out a portion into a swing short.


So either way you look at it, you can be long or short and get it right.  Volatility is the name of the game at the moment, so shorting on market reversals is more profitable, but as usual, need that STOP set before you enter.

Other plays:

If {
Day short @310   (STOP = 314.06  ||  323.47)


Day short @314 (STOP = 323.47)


SNAP To Report Today – Bear Filter Anyone?

Excited to see this horribly managed company report today (Consensus EPS -.33).  From the company that brought you creepy, ugly, hipster, glasses, there’s good reason it trades below its IPO.


I covered my SHORT, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it tanks to the $11-12 zone.

But of course, the real problem with SNAP is there’s no real direction in the company overall.  Their business model feels more reactionary, as in reaction to the competition, and the two competitors are not easy to contend with – Instagram and Facebook.  SNAP is more suitable as a buyout company to be honest, but as a fan of tech, I rarely like buyouts, I would rather they grow inorganically from creativity.  And so secretly I’m hoping for this company to succeed and impress.  Until then, as long as I refuse to buy tacky beach sunglasses, I can’t find myself buying this yellow tacky stock.

The real news will be in what new product they will be launching, which is obviously, or at least naturally should be, about augmented reality.  How about SNAPchat + Pokemon?  That would be a good way to market that steamy hot pile of depreciating face fecal wear.  The kids would love to wear them and Snap/Catch a Pokemon.  OMG hire me now.




Well I got this wrong.  Totally wrong.   Beat by 3 cents.  Trending in the right way, but still a loss on earnings.

Nice intraday rally after the report.  SNAP should benefit from Winter Olympics social media coverage.

[TWTR] Taking this to the shed


INTRADAY price action in extreme conditions is like ripping the clothes off someone.  The fade back is just a run for cover to hide the shame and vulnerability.

That 24.25 Support was tested… and I’m sure its cracked.  This EOD sell off tells you where TWTR is likely going to reprice itself in the next few days.  I’m looking for an entry to short.