Holiday Portfolio Cleanse: Covered 1/2 ETSY +25%, 1/2 CVNA -4%, 1/2 YELP -1%; New shorts SFIX

Covered ETSY +23%

Covered CVNA -4%
Covered YELP -1%

Short SFIX @23.87

Covered ETSY for another solid swing trade. Been short this stock in the 70s, near the top. Averaging in on the way down, so although I do have a +60% gain, on average I’m closer to 25% as I built position to 4x. Stock is very weak, and will go lower. But beware of this broad market, it’s getting ready to destroy some rookie bears and will send ETSY higher. So why haven’t I covered all? If you don’t know, then trade a little more, you’ll get what I mean. Meanwhile, it tapped 30s earlier last week, and probably should have covered, but waiting for those waterfall type drops is where you make those gains that are worth the slight rebound. ETSY is a good candidate for a steep drop.

Entering a position in SFIX, which has more unusual activity. I’ve traded SFIX very successfully, and until I’m proven wrong, I’m going to continue with my reads.

Back to that idea that the market is ready to rip higher to new highs and even newer highs. As a bear/contrarian trader, I respect that. I’ve hedged with my longs, and I’m willing to cut wrong trades on stocks that are going against me, hence I covered half of CVNA for a -4% loss

… I swear, this stock has proven me wrong over and over. Keeping this position thin, like at 1/4 position, is what lets me get the trade wrong and psychological negativity out of the way so I can move on to other trades.

What the Truck is this Thing- Tesla’s CyberTruck

That font is ridiculous, but the tires and lights look pretty cool. Other then that, why does this truck look like a glass roof with wheel?

As for the stock, TSLA has been out of my portfolio ever since my broker has been bugging me with the risks of going long this stock, even though I went by my principles of “buying the panic” and entering in the mid 200s. After this reveal, I’m joining the ranks of the rest of herd, and just wait and see how everyone reacts to this.

CRON Squeeze Intraday + VFF possible squeeze in-play; URBN danger zone could tank hard

Battered pot stocks (the worst performing industry) are setting up daily day-trading setups, on the long and short. I’m on the sidelines having sold CRON longs pre-earnings. Lot of shorts covering.

VFF, another heavily shorted stock, is due for a massive rebound, as there are a ton of shorts that need to be covered soon before the end of the year. If 6 holds for the week, I’m expecting a jump on Friday.

I’m sitting out of URBN which reports today. Its rallied off its August low of 20.51, but a Q4 miss can send this stock down hard. I’m putting the brick-mortar retailers on my radar for a long-term short, the basket will include: TJ Max (TJX), Dollar Tree (DLTR), and Ros (ROST), while holding longs in JWN (Nordstrom). Kohl’s is the first domino piece to fall on a Q3 earnings miss today. Will be an interesting week for retail.

Update on LK – Squeeze to 30s

Dear Gio,

I noticed you’re a little hyped over this stock pick. Remember the rule: you will always regress to mean. Its just another day at the office, so while you have a nice win here, somewhere down the road you will face an equal loser. What will you do then that would be different from now? Perhaps, you wouldn’t share it to the world, since its easier to publish our wins. Will an aversion to loss cause you to hold on? Will you abide by your trading principles to cut losses and admit defeat? Well, that’s something to keep in mind. But going into this trade you must realize the possibility that the herd will take profits and leave you behind. Are you willing to admit a mistake there? Or will your bias rationalize your trade and cause you to hold on to the trade thinking you’re in control, when only chance or luck will make either humble you or make you look like a genius, the latter being even more dangerous as it would embolden you to make a patter of bad trades.

So while the trend is in your favor, remember you are not playing the market, but the players. The market is unbeatable, and it should stay that way. If everyone could beat the market, then there would be no game. Respect the market, and continue to short the greed, buy the panic, kick those who are down, and pull on the capes of stock traders blinded by their so-called superhero power analysis.

From the heart of a contrarian…

Sincerely,
Gio


Its time to put fundamentals aside, and just attack LK from short term technical perspective. Stock is heavily shorted, and its high r/r for bears. Take advantage of those chasing the top, ride this to the 30s. Expect dips, which should make good entry points. For example, a morning pop to 29.80 showed high rate of exchange of covering, buying, and profit-taking. These uncertain and panicky exchanges usually mean the stock will continue in its short-term trend.

Adding to longs here.

Looks like I’m not the only one in on this trade.

Bullish on Luckin (LK) Aggressive Growth

LK seeks to overtake Starbucks by 2020, and a lot of traders are betting against it. What we need is more negative news, and some bad reviews ghost-written by bears to bring in more shorts. This stock just attracts so much rookies I had to take a long position pre-earnings. Looking to add this on a confirmed rally about 24/25 area.

Time to Go to Work! Slack On the Buy List

I’ve been waiting for slack to hit $17, but with its base forming here right at the low 20s, it has jumped way up on my to-buy list. You can show further patience and buy under 20, but when it comes to timing capitulation, its usually better to just make an entry and average in instead of timing the bottom. If the company is healthy, like Slack, has a great product, like Slack, and is under the radar by giants, as Slack is with Microsoft, then investing in it for the longer term is smart.

My stop-loss plan is to mirror something that of PDD chart. I’m anchoring the trade according to PDD 1-year chart… if this isn’t the bottom, I’ll buy more aggressively in 16-18 levels.

PRICE CHART OF Pinduoduo Inc (PDD)